The Total Cost of the Iraq War
I thought the Iraqi oil revenues were suppose to pay for the war? A new working paper from Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes:
Approach
The authors meticulously reconstruct the war’s real costs in a range of alternative scenarios. Using standard accounting and budgetary techniques, they uncover a series of costs which are not self-evident and should be taken into account when assessing the total costs of the war on the long term. The relative importance of each cost category may thus be assessed too - something which may also be of help in politically evaluating this war.
Findings
The costs of the Iraq war are officially estimated around $500 billion, a sum which may be compared to the one spent in the Korea and Vietnam wars. However, this is likely to be less than half of the war’s real economic cost. If proper accounting principles are adopted, reasonable estimates lie between $750 and $1,269 billion - or between 6% and 10% of America’s GDP. Taking other economic costs into account, such as the medical costs borne by seriously injured soldiers, the loss of income produced by reservists on duty, and increases in oil price and greater uncertainty, adds $380 to $1,400 billion in present value terms.
Novelty
This analysis of the costs of the Iraq war allows the authors to outline a useful novel methodology and a new conceptual framework for implementing a rational cost-benefit analysis for any war. While this may seem a gruesome exercise considering the monetary evaluation of casualties and injuries, it is in fact a valuable tool for supporting rational policy decisions.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home