Peak Oil

James Hamilton has an excellent post on Oil Market Predictions:

... Many have articulated a vision of "peak oil" as akin to a cliff that we suddenly wake up to find ourselves to have driven off. I instead envision it as a more gradual process in which we continually pay more for oil, trying to extract lower quality stuff from harder-to-get-at locations and with increasing geopolitical risks. When asked, "what will peak oil look like?", my answer has been, "perhaps a lot like the last two years".